This coming Sunday are the 86th Academy Awards, honoring the very best of film from 2013. As a year that in many ways pushed the bounds for cinema, this year's Academy Awards will be extremely competitive. Here I present to you my list of who I expect to win the statuettes this weekend, and who I think should win the Oscar, enjoy! (Note: since I rarely watch the nominated shorts or documentaries, I opted to leave them out of this year's picks)
Best Picture
Who Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
This past year produced so many incredible films that in any other movies not even nominated would have been top contenders. Who will take home the grandest Oscar of them all is a tough question, with recent momentum building for films like Gravity, but ultimately I believe it will come down to 12 Years a Slave versus American Hustle. Looking at the awards each of these films have already won, and the incredible response by critics and audiences, I predict 12 Years a Slave taking home this year's Best Picture Oscar.
Who Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Without a shadow of a doubt 12 Years a Slave. As soon as I left the theater I new that I had seen a truly magnificent and powerful film that would remain a classic for years and years to come. Chiwetel Ejiofor gives a breathtaking performance and director Steve McQueen expertly crafts this emotionally wrenching and unflinchingly real tale of American slavery. 12 Years a Slave is one of the most important films to be made in years, as well as one of the best.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Who Will Win: Matthew McConaughey
Best Actor is this year's most competitive category by a long shot, with surprise snubs for stars like Tom Hanks who were previously considered in the running for the award. Chiwetel Ejiofor was an early favorite, but with the Golden Globes going to Matthew McConaughey and Leonardo DiCaprio the field has changed. McConaughey does give the performance of his life in Dallas Buyers Club, and he went to incredible ends for his role. Add to that his career's intense makeover of the past few years, and we should be looking at an Academy Award for this Texas-born movie star.
Who Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor
I would count myself in the Chiwetel Ejiofor camp for this year's Best Actor award. Though I respect Matthew McConaughey greatly and have loved watching his roles of recent years reflect his true talent, I think that Ejiofor's stirring and stoic performance is the stronger of the two (as a fan of DiCaprio I have to say sorry, but once again this doesn't seem to be your year).
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Cate Blanchett's commanding performance in Blue Jasmine made the film, and she beats out her fellow competitors this year.
Who Should Win: Cate Blanchett
While some early chatter mentioned Sandra Bullock for her intense solo performance in Gravity, the praise for Woody Allen's latest film has almost entirely been for Cate Blanchett's incredible performance, one which is more than worthy of Oscar gold.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Who Will Win: Jared Leto
With Jared Leto making his return to acting in such grand fashion, the Academy is likely to reward his transformative performance in Dallas Buyers Club.
Who Should Win: Jared Leto or Michael Fassbender
I think that Jared Leto is more than worthy for his role as Rayon, a transgender woman with HIV who befriends Matthew McConaughey's rowdy cowboy with the same disease. However, I believe that Michael Fassbender is of equal worth for this award, and I would have a very difficult time choosing a winner if I were a member of the academy.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Who Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Jennifer Lawrence and Lupita Nyong'o have more or less split almost all of the major precursor awards so far this season, making for a tight race. However, the academy is probably more likely to reward Nyong'o than the 23-year old Lawrence for the second year in a row.
Who Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Lupita Nyong'o, a Kenyan actress who makes her American film debut in Steve McQueen's 12 Years a Slave, gave a phenomenal supporting performance as Patsy. I personally thought that Jennifer Lawrence's performance, while herself a talented young actress, was a tad over-acted and over-hyped.
Best Director
Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón
Gravity was technically and visually the most mesmerizing film of the year, and writer/director Cuarón will most likely be rewarded for his tremendous work here.
Who Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón
Gravity is such an achievement in filmmaking it may just change the way people make films. The excellent attention to detail and pure audience immersion of Gravity made it a great cinematic spectacle, so yes I believe Cuarón is deserving of Oscar gold.
Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: Her
As I predict, American Hustle, despite its 10 nominations will be shut out of many of the major rewards. Original Screenplay could be where it wins back that early momentum, but with a Writer's Guild Award and Golden Globe in Her's corner its becoming harder to see anyone taking it away from Spike Jonze's quirky and touching near-future drama.
Who Should Win: Her
As its such an original and wonderful story, I think Her seems the best choice. It paints a unique vision of the future and comments on everything from contemporary relationships to our use of technology, its also both funny and emotional at the same time, making Spike Jonze's a worthy Oscar script.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
John Ridley's adaptation of Solomon Northup's personal memoir of his twelve years enslaved by various Louisiana plantation owners is a sure frontrunner. Like the film itself, Ridley's script has swept a number of awards, and its majestic power should drive it to victory here.
Who Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
As the best film of the year, 12 Years a Slave should take home this Oscar for John Ridley's terrific screenplay.
Best Cinematography
Who Will Win: Gravity
The incredible visual work on Gravity should be enough to give it an additional award for cinematography. Though I'm surprised 12 Years a Slave was shut out of this category.
Who Should Win: Gravity
Answering who should win this category is a little more complicated. Gravity certainly was the most technically successful, and was a truly stunning film. However, Nebraska and Inside Llewyn Davis may provide for formidable competition. What shocked me the most was that 12 Years a Slave was left out of this category.
Best Visual Effects
Who Will Win: Gravity
Gravity so easily beats out the competition in this field - from Iron Man 3 to Star Trek Into Darkness.
Who Should Win: Gravity
To quote my review, Gravity is a "mesmerisingly beautiful piece of work", and is well deserving of this year's Visual Effects award.
Best Film Editing
Who Will Win: Gravity
After shutting Gravity out from most of the major awards, I think it will pick up a pile of Oscars in the various technical categories, including Best Film Editing for Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger's work.
Who Should Win: Gravity
As I, and so many others, have noted, Gravity may just change the way people make movies. For this it deserves some recognition in the technical fields, as it was the most technically brilliant movie of the year by a long shot.
Best Animated Feature
Who Will Win: Frozen
Frozen is one of Disney's best animated films in years, and for showing that the studio can still produce top-notch family films with plenty of heartfelt charm and adorable laughs, trust me when I say that Frozen will take home the statuette.
Who Should Win: Frozen
Without a doubt the best animated features of 2013, and most likely the best family film of the year as well, Frozen more than deserves the year's top honor for animated movies. With such memorable songs and loveable characters, it stands out from the pack.
Best Foreign Language Film
Who Will Win: The Great Beauty
Who Should Win: The Great Beauty or The Broken Circle Breakdown
Best Production Design
Who Will Win: The Great Gatsby
The elaborate sets, grandiose scenes, and detail of this film make it a viable contender this year. Additionally, Catherine Martin is about as close to celebrity status gets for costume and production designers.
Who Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
I liked this film more than most, but whether you liked this adaptation of F. Scott Fitzgerald's or not, it's hard to deny that it was produced quite spectacularly. That being said, I would most likely give this award to 12 Years a Slave if I was the one calling the shots. It was filmed with great beauty and great pain, and production designer Adam Stockhausen captured the era and ambiance frightfully well.
Best Costume Design
Who Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Catherine Martin will almost certainly take home a statuette this coming Sunday, if not for production design than she will for The Great Gatsby's elaborate costuming.
Who Should Win: The Great Gatsby
12 Years a Slave is once again the main competition for this award, but with costuming I'm more sure that Catherine Martin and The Great Gatsby deserve this one.
Best Make Up and Hairstyling
Who Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
After getting over the shock that Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa was actually nominated for an Oscar, I realized that The Hunger Games: Catching Fire was missing from this category when it should have been here. But since it isn't, Dallas Buyers Club will probably, and should, win this award.
Who Should Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Best Original Score
Who Will Win: Gravity
With few characters and a powerful score, Gravity has a solid chance of taking home the award for Best Original Score in addition to its other prizes.
Who Should Win: Her
Despite Gravity's rousing score that was well-suited to match Cuarón's epic drama, I personally would choose Her, for William Butler and Owen Pallett's perfectly matched score. The music not only agreed with Spike Jonze's script, but set a tone for the film that complemented the stellar cinematography.
Best Original Song
Who Will Win: "Let it Go" from Frozen
U2's original song "Ordinary Love", written for Nelson Mandela's biopic A Long Walk to Freedom has the political power to garner academy support, it deals with the universal theme of love, and is a wonderful song - it also nabbed the Golden Globe for Best Original Song. However, the fervour surrounding "Let it Go" has erupted into a whirlwind of success and popularity; from dozens of cover performances to weathermen singing it on the news, "Let it Go" has achieved the kind of zeitgeist-level success a Disney song aspires towards, and will probably nab the Oscar for it.
Who Should Win: "Let it Go" from Frozen
On pure popular success, Idina Menzel's beautiful performance of "Let it Go" from Frozen is a great choice, and Pharrell Williams' "Happy" was such a catchy hit most people forgot it came from a movie to begin with. Honestly all three songs are so good yet so different its hard to decide, but as a song written for a movie, I think I would reward Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez for their work in Frozen.
Best Sounds Mixing
Who Will Win: Gravity
Who Should Win: Gravity
Best Sound Editing
Who Will Win: Gravity
Who Should Win: Gravity or Captain Phillips
Who Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
This past year produced so many incredible films that in any other movies not even nominated would have been top contenders. Who will take home the grandest Oscar of them all is a tough question, with recent momentum building for films like Gravity, but ultimately I believe it will come down to 12 Years a Slave versus American Hustle. Looking at the awards each of these films have already won, and the incredible response by critics and audiences, I predict 12 Years a Slave taking home this year's Best Picture Oscar.
Who Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Without a shadow of a doubt 12 Years a Slave. As soon as I left the theater I new that I had seen a truly magnificent and powerful film that would remain a classic for years and years to come. Chiwetel Ejiofor gives a breathtaking performance and director Steve McQueen expertly crafts this emotionally wrenching and unflinchingly real tale of American slavery. 12 Years a Slave is one of the most important films to be made in years, as well as one of the best.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Who Will Win: Matthew McConaughey
Best Actor is this year's most competitive category by a long shot, with surprise snubs for stars like Tom Hanks who were previously considered in the running for the award. Chiwetel Ejiofor was an early favorite, but with the Golden Globes going to Matthew McConaughey and Leonardo DiCaprio the field has changed. McConaughey does give the performance of his life in Dallas Buyers Club, and he went to incredible ends for his role. Add to that his career's intense makeover of the past few years, and we should be looking at an Academy Award for this Texas-born movie star.
Who Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor
I would count myself in the Chiwetel Ejiofor camp for this year's Best Actor award. Though I respect Matthew McConaughey greatly and have loved watching his roles of recent years reflect his true talent, I think that Ejiofor's stirring and stoic performance is the stronger of the two (as a fan of DiCaprio I have to say sorry, but once again this doesn't seem to be your year).
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Cate Blanchett's commanding performance in Blue Jasmine made the film, and she beats out her fellow competitors this year.
Who Should Win: Cate Blanchett
While some early chatter mentioned Sandra Bullock for her intense solo performance in Gravity, the praise for Woody Allen's latest film has almost entirely been for Cate Blanchett's incredible performance, one which is more than worthy of Oscar gold.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Who Will Win: Jared Leto
With Jared Leto making his return to acting in such grand fashion, the Academy is likely to reward his transformative performance in Dallas Buyers Club.
Who Should Win: Jared Leto or Michael Fassbender
I think that Jared Leto is more than worthy for his role as Rayon, a transgender woman with HIV who befriends Matthew McConaughey's rowdy cowboy with the same disease. However, I believe that Michael Fassbender is of equal worth for this award, and I would have a very difficult time choosing a winner if I were a member of the academy.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Who Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Jennifer Lawrence and Lupita Nyong'o have more or less split almost all of the major precursor awards so far this season, making for a tight race. However, the academy is probably more likely to reward Nyong'o than the 23-year old Lawrence for the second year in a row.
Who Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Lupita Nyong'o, a Kenyan actress who makes her American film debut in Steve McQueen's 12 Years a Slave, gave a phenomenal supporting performance as Patsy. I personally thought that Jennifer Lawrence's performance, while herself a talented young actress, was a tad over-acted and over-hyped.
Best Director
Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón
Gravity was technically and visually the most mesmerizing film of the year, and writer/director Cuarón will most likely be rewarded for his tremendous work here.
Who Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón
Gravity is such an achievement in filmmaking it may just change the way people make films. The excellent attention to detail and pure audience immersion of Gravity made it a great cinematic spectacle, so yes I believe Cuarón is deserving of Oscar gold.
Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: Her
As I predict, American Hustle, despite its 10 nominations will be shut out of many of the major rewards. Original Screenplay could be where it wins back that early momentum, but with a Writer's Guild Award and Golden Globe in Her's corner its becoming harder to see anyone taking it away from Spike Jonze's quirky and touching near-future drama.
Who Should Win: Her
As its such an original and wonderful story, I think Her seems the best choice. It paints a unique vision of the future and comments on everything from contemporary relationships to our use of technology, its also both funny and emotional at the same time, making Spike Jonze's a worthy Oscar script.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
John Ridley's adaptation of Solomon Northup's personal memoir of his twelve years enslaved by various Louisiana plantation owners is a sure frontrunner. Like the film itself, Ridley's script has swept a number of awards, and its majestic power should drive it to victory here.
Who Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
As the best film of the year, 12 Years a Slave should take home this Oscar for John Ridley's terrific screenplay.
Best Cinematography
Who Will Win: Gravity
The incredible visual work on Gravity should be enough to give it an additional award for cinematography. Though I'm surprised 12 Years a Slave was shut out of this category.
Who Should Win: Gravity
Answering who should win this category is a little more complicated. Gravity certainly was the most technically successful, and was a truly stunning film. However, Nebraska and Inside Llewyn Davis may provide for formidable competition. What shocked me the most was that 12 Years a Slave was left out of this category.
Best Visual Effects
Who Will Win: Gravity
Gravity so easily beats out the competition in this field - from Iron Man 3 to Star Trek Into Darkness.
Who Should Win: Gravity
To quote my review, Gravity is a "mesmerisingly beautiful piece of work", and is well deserving of this year's Visual Effects award.
Best Film Editing
Who Will Win: Gravity
After shutting Gravity out from most of the major awards, I think it will pick up a pile of Oscars in the various technical categories, including Best Film Editing for Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger's work.
Who Should Win: Gravity
As I, and so many others, have noted, Gravity may just change the way people make movies. For this it deserves some recognition in the technical fields, as it was the most technically brilliant movie of the year by a long shot.
Best Animated Feature
Who Will Win: Frozen
Frozen is one of Disney's best animated films in years, and for showing that the studio can still produce top-notch family films with plenty of heartfelt charm and adorable laughs, trust me when I say that Frozen will take home the statuette.
Who Should Win: Frozen
Without a doubt the best animated features of 2013, and most likely the best family film of the year as well, Frozen more than deserves the year's top honor for animated movies. With such memorable songs and loveable characters, it stands out from the pack.
Best Foreign Language Film
Who Will Win: The Great Beauty
Who Should Win: The Great Beauty or The Broken Circle Breakdown
Best Production Design
Who Will Win: The Great Gatsby
The elaborate sets, grandiose scenes, and detail of this film make it a viable contender this year. Additionally, Catherine Martin is about as close to celebrity status gets for costume and production designers.
Who Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
I liked this film more than most, but whether you liked this adaptation of F. Scott Fitzgerald's or not, it's hard to deny that it was produced quite spectacularly. That being said, I would most likely give this award to 12 Years a Slave if I was the one calling the shots. It was filmed with great beauty and great pain, and production designer Adam Stockhausen captured the era and ambiance frightfully well.
Best Costume Design
Who Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Catherine Martin will almost certainly take home a statuette this coming Sunday, if not for production design than she will for The Great Gatsby's elaborate costuming.
Who Should Win: The Great Gatsby
12 Years a Slave is once again the main competition for this award, but with costuming I'm more sure that Catherine Martin and The Great Gatsby deserve this one.
Best Make Up and Hairstyling
Who Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
After getting over the shock that Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa was actually nominated for an Oscar, I realized that The Hunger Games: Catching Fire was missing from this category when it should have been here. But since it isn't, Dallas Buyers Club will probably, and should, win this award.
Who Should Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Best Original Score
Who Will Win: Gravity
With few characters and a powerful score, Gravity has a solid chance of taking home the award for Best Original Score in addition to its other prizes.
Who Should Win: Her
Despite Gravity's rousing score that was well-suited to match Cuarón's epic drama, I personally would choose Her, for William Butler and Owen Pallett's perfectly matched score. The music not only agreed with Spike Jonze's script, but set a tone for the film that complemented the stellar cinematography.
Best Original Song
Who Will Win: "Let it Go" from Frozen
U2's original song "Ordinary Love", written for Nelson Mandela's biopic A Long Walk to Freedom has the political power to garner academy support, it deals with the universal theme of love, and is a wonderful song - it also nabbed the Golden Globe for Best Original Song. However, the fervour surrounding "Let it Go" has erupted into a whirlwind of success and popularity; from dozens of cover performances to weathermen singing it on the news, "Let it Go" has achieved the kind of zeitgeist-level success a Disney song aspires towards, and will probably nab the Oscar for it.
Who Should Win: "Let it Go" from Frozen
On pure popular success, Idina Menzel's beautiful performance of "Let it Go" from Frozen is a great choice, and Pharrell Williams' "Happy" was such a catchy hit most people forgot it came from a movie to begin with. Honestly all three songs are so good yet so different its hard to decide, but as a song written for a movie, I think I would reward Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez for their work in Frozen.
Best Sounds Mixing
Who Will Win: Gravity
Who Should Win: Gravity
Best Sound Editing
Who Will Win: Gravity
Who Should Win: Gravity or Captain Phillips
If my predictions are correct, Gravity and 12 Years a Slave will be the two big winners of the night. I predict that Gravity will take home the most Oscars with a total of 7, and while I only predict 12 Years a Slave to win 3 Oscars, it should still win Best Picture. Perhaps a bigger surprise is that I'm predicting American Hustle to go home empty-handed, despite its early predictions to win across a range of categories (though it may win a writing award to make for its other losses). Regardless of who wins this Sunday, 2013 will be remembered as a great year for film, and the Academy Awards are always a fun way to celebrate that.